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Dear Diary
August 17
  Sometimes "Maybe" is the most fascinating answer of them all.  I decided to put in another offer for gasoline at Priceline -- one less than $1.66 -- as I have seen the price dropping at the Texaco station where I currently get my "Priceline gas."  When I signed in, the process was much the same as before (see August 1), except the gas stations to which I sent an offer last time automatically appeared again as stations that would consider my offer, though I had the option to select any gas stations available (still, by virtue of being in my consideration set the first time around, I believe that these stations did have an advantage over the other stations participating in Priceline's gas program). 

As part of the process, I was informed that I could have at most 50 gallons of gas in my account at any one time (I believe I read that correctly).  I had approximately 31 gallons in my account when I signed in; nevertheless, I was allowed to indicate that I wanted to purchase 50 gallons.  This made me somewhat uncertain as to how much gas I would actually be allowed to purchase.  (I sent an email to Priceline for clarification about this and another item.)

When I got to the section where I would be entering in my offer, I was very surprised to see that the "average price per gallon" for premium grade gas at my selected stations was $1.85.  I was curious because 1) the reported average price on August 1 at these same stations was $1.78 and 2) the retail price at the Texaco station has dropped a couple of pennies since then.  I did not drive by the other two gas stations to see their pump prices on either August 1 or August 17 (today), however, I believe that gas stations tend to adjust prices at the pump in concert and in the same direction.  Therefore, I was questioning the veracity of this information.  As far as bidding, Priceline indicated that an offer of $1.80 had an excellent chance of being accepted, an offer of $1.76 had  good chance of being accepted, an offer of $1.70 had  fair chance of being accepted, and an offer of $1.65 had  low chance of being accepted.

I do not consider myself to be a gas pricing expert, however, Priceline's information did not settle right with me.  Given this and my uncertainty over how many gallons of gas I would actually be allowed to buy, I decided to put in an aggressive price and observe the outcome; I was also testing the extent to which Priceline was tacitly price promoting offers (i.e., Priceline can elect, "unbeknownst to me," to pay the difference between my offer and what a merchant is willing to sell for in order to make sure that I receive my price -- there is probably a little chicken and egg in getting this business going, so this behavior helps get consumers involved and helps merchants sell product).  I put in a bid for 50 gallons of premium grade gasoline at $1.54 per gallon.

Round and round went the "Yes-No-Maybe" tumblers for my offer.  As I watched them spin, I was hoping that they would not come up "sorry."  Sure enough, each tumbler settled on "Maybe."  When I saw this, I wondered "hmm, what do I do now?"  Four basic types of doors were on the other side of a "maybe."  Door number one said "raise your price" to a specific amount -- $1.76 in my case (and Priceline let me know that I'd still be saving $0.09 per gallon) -- and presumably the offer would be accepted.

Door number two consisted of getting my price if I was willing to also conduct a transaction with someone else.  For example, if I was willing to purchase a $10 gift certificate for KBKids/Toys, then my offer for premium gasoline at $1.54 would have been accepted.  I also noticed "maybe" deals that involved getting a magazine subscription (seven issue of Travel & Leisure Golf Magazine for $21) or ten dollars worth of "MusicCash" for purchasing merchandise --music related I assume -- at Sam Goody, Wal*Mart, Tower Records "and more."  The door number three deal was somewhat similar to a door number two type deal except it involves getting gas at a price that is significantly lower than the original offer price.  For example, were I willing to sign up for long distance telephone service through Essential.com (at $0.059 per minute with "no fees" -- I believe Essential.com uses Qwest Communications at this time and I have heard of some frustration with respect to service by those who are using Essential.com for long distance), then I would have been able to purchase premium gasoline for $1.19 per gallon (way below my original offer of $1.66).

Door number three is where you can say "No Thank You" to the option of modifying your offer and, subsequently, have your original offer be "sorried" -- i.e., rejected.  (Could this become a sniglet?  Would Priceline sue me?  Could one copyright or trademark the use of the word "sorry?"  See here for a definition of a sniglet and here and here for some interesting sniglets).  Given my uncertainties, I elected to go down this path.  I did, however, do some quick quantitative analysis as I was reviewing some of the offers behind door number two; and were I certain that I would indeed be purchasing 50 additional gallons of premium gas, I would have gone for it.  Warning, here comes the quantitative analysis (it's brief).

Assume a current pump price per gallon of $1.699 at Texaco, as I would purchase it there on Fridays when they offer ten cents off the regular price of premium grade fuel.  My savings per gallon would be $0.159 per gallon ($1.699 - $1.54).  Multiplying the savings by 50 gallons, and we get $7.95 for potential total savings; I say "potential" because gas prices may increase or decrease over the time of the gas purchase contract (which in turn would impact the realized savings).  I could easily imagine either Amy or myself shopping at KBKids/Toys and spending at least ten dollars worth of merchandise, so, in this case, I would not perceive myself as spending ten dollars in order to save a little less than eight dollars.
 

Let The Toysmart Sell Off Begin?
Amy noticed a quarter page advertisement in today's Boston Globe that may have been announcing the sell off of some Toysmart.com toys.  The ad read and appeared somewhat as follows:

(start of advertisement description)
Now thru August 26 at 170 High St. Waltham

TUESDAY MORNING
SELL-OFF OF
.COM TOYSTORE INVENTORY

Everything Reduced 40% Off Retail Price

First quality, closeout retailer, Tuesday Morning reduces toy inventory even more!
Don't miss the values! Every book, every infant accessory, every famous maker toy, including popular Thomas the Tank train sets and Winnie the Pooh items is now reduced 40% off in-store or web site retail prices of well-known Internet toy retailer.  Our experienced buyer seized the opportunity to purchase this .com toy company's inventory at closeout prices...and, we're passing the savings on to you.  Don't miss this sell-off event filled with the most famous toy names.  Below are just a few examples (and they list with bullet points Brio, Lego, K'nex, Gund, Hasbro, Fisher-Price, Radio Flyer, Learning Curve, Corolle Dolls, Mega Bloks, Parker Bros., Playmobil, And Do Many More).

The advertisement lists in small print "Tuesday Morning will gladly refund any returned item in its original packaging with sales receipt, at the High Street location.  No returns will be accepted after August 24.  Discount not applicable to previous purchases."  In addition, other small print reads "As filed with Peter Koutoujlan, City Clerk, Waltham, MA on August 10, 2000 in accordance with MGL, Chapter 93, Section 28A" (assuming that my eyes were able to read the small print correctly).

(end of advertisement description)

The opening hours listed were Monday to Saturday, 10am to 6pm and Sunday, noon to 6pm.  Amy made sure to let mention to me that "here's a sale that I might go to and that you will not be going to."  Thanks Amy.  We know from past experience that the "huge discounts" declared by the folks of Toysmart, back in the day when they were known as Holt Educational Outlet, were typically overstated and nothing special.  This situation might be different.
 

Homeruns has made some changes
I've noticed a few changes in the Homeruns website and pricing, for the better I believe.  They now provide a separate link on the introductory order page (the one that appears after signing in) for ordering Hannaford (store) branded products, which tend to be priced lower than the leading advertised brands.  I have tried several Hannaford branded products and I have found their quality to be absolutely fine (e.g., Fruit Rings cereal which is similar to Fruit Loops cereal -- though I do order both because the guys also like the Fruit Loops with the marshmallow bits; I could never stand those things in my cereal when I was growing up).  I'm not terribly keen on their prepared food items, however, the packaged goods items have been of good quality (e.g., flavorful and filling).  In addition, the Homeruns website is now doing a better job of highlighting items that are on special.  Previously they used the term "wow" as a label for a link to items that were sale priced; now they use the word "value," which sends a much clearer communication.  A "value" icon also appears next to the item, whereas before, there was no indication that an item was "on deal" unless one linked to the item through the old "wow" link (of course, some of us who get to know the prices are able to notice when a price is different -- who me?).

I've also noticed that product prices are higher for some items (e.g., Huggies Pullups are now $7.49, they were $6.99); I have no idea whether this is due to internal decisions related to pursuing profits more aggressively or due to changes in product costs or other cost structure related factors.  In addition, I have no idea whether the typical "market basket" price has increased or not; I do perceive, however, a slight increase in the average price of Homeruns products.  That's fine with me as I still perceive great value in shopping online with Homeruns and I want them to stay in business so that I can continue to use their service.  I am assuming that last week's delivery experience was an aberration (see August 12).

For some of the Hannaford branded products, Homeruns will list a statement directing one to compare the item to a leading brand name product.  For example, for its "Crunchy Peanut Butter," Homeruns says "Compare to Skippy Crunchy Peanut Butter."  Well, I'll bite.  I ordered both Hannaford brand Crunchy Peanut Butter and Skippy brand "Crunchy Peanut Butter" and I will indeed compare them -- probably not in the same way as Consumer Reports would do it, but I hope my approach will yield helpful results (e.g., smearing some peanut butter on the floor or carpet, to simulate the kids dropping their peanut butter sandwiches, and then seeing which one is easier to clean up, or seeing which package makes it easier to remove the last morsels of peanut butter from the jar while getting the least amount of peanut butter on my fingers).
 

Luis Castillo RBI Watch (Through August 17, 2000)

Number of Hits......Batting Average......Number of RBI......Runs Scored
......137.......................360............................9........................78

Luis and the Marlins had the day off; they get back on the baseball diamond tomorrow night against the Colorado Rockies.  I'm a little nervous about the odds that he will get an rbi as Coors Field is a hitter's delight -- I wonder if odds are being set in Las Vegas?  I read recently that the batting average for players in baseball games held at Coors Field is .332; amazing if true, yet I find this difficult to believe.

 
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  Boston, summer 2000 | Copyright Bruce Weinberg